Ron Daulton

Ron Daulton

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Saturday, 03 August 2013 11:46

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Wednesday, 29 February 2012 06:02

Fed's Semiannual Economic Update

On Wednesday at 1000ET/1500GMT, Fed Chair Bernanke will present the Fed's semi-annual economic update to the House Financial Services Committee. Headlines from his prepared remarks will flash across at the start of his testimony, and Q&A later will provide for more headlines.

In his prepared remarks, we think Bernanke will strike a cautiously optimistic tone in light of recent stronger US economic data reports. But we also think he will highlight ongoing headwinds to the US recovery (primarily from potential fallout from the Eurozone debt crisis, still too-high unemployment, and a cratered US housing market, higher gasoline prices to boot ), keeping the overall slant of his outlook on the dovish side. We think Bernanke will make some mention that the Fed is still considering whether to provide additional stimulus to the recovery (keeping options open), but that he won't make any explicit commitments that fresh stimulus is on the way. The risk here, in our view, is that Bernanke does signal that the Fed is closer to a third round of asset purchases (QE3), potentially sharply undermining the USD (especially USD/JPY) and stoking further gains in risk assets, like stocks, commodities, and commodity FX (AUD, CAD, and NZD).

On balance, we think Bernanke's likely cautiously optimistic and yet dovish outlook should be supportive of risk sentiment overall, and thus tend to bias the greenback to further weakness. However, markets will still be digesting the results of the ECB's LTRO from earlier in the European morning (as well as the Feb. Chicago PMI 15 minutes before Bernanke), possibly making Wednesday a 'one-two' type of trading day.

If the LTRO is positive for risk appetite and risk assets have already rallied into Bernanke's testimony, we would be on guard for a potential risk reversal lower on profit-taking, especially if Bernanke highlights the vulnerabilities of the US recovery and the risks for setbacks. Alternatively, if Bernanke downplays the need for additional stimulus based on an improved outlook, markets may also resort to profit-taking, as QE3 is less likely. Only if he provides more specific indications that QE3 seems more likely would we then expect risk to rally further.

If the LTRO leaves markets wanting, and risk sentiment deteriorates or succumbs to profit-taking after the fact, Bernanke's testimony may actually provide the opposite effect to the scenario outlined above, potentially leading to revived risk appetite if the Fed Chair expresses greater optimism, or the determination to act if the recovery falters.

In terms of price levels to watch, key short-term EUR/USD support comes in at 1.3330/50 area, while strength above 1.3475/85 highs may see gains extend toward 1.3570/80. In USD/JPY, we look at the 79.70/80.00 as important short-term support, while strength back above 81.00 may see new highs toward 82.00. Overall, our preference is to use pullbacks in USD/JPY and JPY-crosses as opportunities to enter longs, potentially in the 78.50/79.00 area in USD/JPY and 84.00/50 in AUD/JPY. We would abandon that strategy if Bernanke gives strong signals that QE3 is more likely than not.
Wednesday, 29 February 2012 06:01

Japan's Industrial Production Beat Expectations

Japan's industrial production advanced more than expectations, indicating that the world's third-largest economy may return to growth this quarter.

The Japanese economy released January's preliminary reading for the industrial production, where it retreated to 2.0% compared with the prior reading of 3.8, also it missed expectations of 1.5%.

On the other hand, January's preliminary reading for the annualized industrial production advanced to -1.2% compared with the prior reading of -4.3%, also it exceeded expectations of -1.6%.

As, the nation's huge manufacturers like Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. are recovering from disruptions that caused by Thailand's floods and the earthquake and tsunami that destroyed a huge part of Japan.

Also, the reconstruction work and incentives for purchases of environmentally friendly cars may help to revive the economy that shrank an annualized 2.3% in the fourth quarter.

the Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's approved a 2.5 trillion yen ($31 billion) extra budget, that passed by the parliament this month, included 300 billion yen for the subsidy program. Car sales jumped 24 percent in January from a year earlier, the most in 22 years.

additionally, the progress in containing Europe's debt crisis, along with the weakening yen and monetary easing in emerging nations may help Japan's economy to recover.

Looking at the Australian dollar against the US dollar we see that the AUD/USD cross has been predominately consolidating over the last month after a very strong rally during January. What we're looking for now is a break of consolidation to either side, which should signify the next leg for this pair.

The two options then are an extension of the January rally, with a break of the consolidation pattern to the topside, and a move towards the 2011 highs near 1.1050, or a sharper correction to the rally over the previous 2 months, if price action breaks through our recent supports near 1.0625 and 1.0593. A third option would be for this pair to continue its sideways action, consolidating further prior to a break either way.

Will RBA Cut Rates Further This Year - Key Question/Factor for AUD

While the AUD is most primarily based on general risk sentiment - where equities and commodities go - and we have a very big sentiment event with the ECB LTRO 2 in Wednesday's trading session, we still want to keep our eye on the key fundamental releases which will be coming out of Australia in the upcoming Asian trading session - including most important one retail sales.

This report should help give us the most up-to-date view of the economy and what the RBA will be examining when it meets next to decide interest rates.

At their previous RBA meeting, the central bank surprised markets by holding steady at 4.25% instead of initiating another 25 basis point rate reduction. However, the concluding sentence of the statement said that the bank “judged that if demand conditions were to weaken materially, the inflation outlook would provide scope for a further easing in monetary policy.”

We'll have our chance to see demand conditions via the retail sales, new home sales, and private sector credit which are slated for release in the upcoming Asian session.

What To Watch For in Australia's Retail Sales Report

The key to look for from tonight's data is the retail sales report as it gives us the clearest indication of consumers spending.

As you can see in the chart above retail sales have been on a downward trend over the last six months and were negative in December. The consensus forecast is for a 0.3% increase in January.

If sales come in as expected it would break this downward trend in the indicator, and could give support to the RBA stance that interest rates are where they should be unless the economy deteriorates further.

A positive release in which retail sales are climb above 0.3% - say 0.5% or above - would only further hammer that theme home and could create the conditions for the Aussie to push towards its highs from the last two weeks (other risk events notwithstanding).

A negative release - one that undershoot expectations and shows either flat or negative sales in January would increase concerns about the wider economy and the prospects for consumer spending to drive growth in the early part of the year.

This would be a reason to increase pressure on the RBA to lower rates further and as a result would be a negative fundamental factor for the Australian dollar and on the face of it should weaken the Aussie from a fundamental interest-rate perspective.

Housing and Credit - Gauging Other Measures of Demand

While the retail sales release is the highlight in the batch of data released in the Wednesday Australian morning session, we can gleam important information from the 2 other reports we have on tap - new home sales and private sector credit growth.

New home sales - have been certainly rocky of late posting a negative 4.9% drop in sales in December after a rebound in November. Soft readings in this indicator means that households are not confident, or don't have the financial security to undertake such a big purchase.

This is an important measure of domestic demand then for us as economy and central bank watchers and the softer the housing market the more responsive the RBA should be. Another negative reading here would increase calls for lower interest rates from the RBA, while a bounce back into positive territory should be seen as a positive factor. However, we can see that Australia housing market is at a much lower pace than it was in the first half of 2011, and even small positive gains are not indicative of a healthy market.

Private credit data - the amount of new credit taken on by households - has been fairly consistent of late increasing 0.3% the previous two months, and 0.2% before that. The forecast for January is for a 0.3% increase and similarly to the retail sales and new home sales data we have talked about, private credit is a reading of overall domestic demand.

If private sector credit demand comes in above expectations - surprises to the topside - that would be a favorable fundamental condition for the Australian dollar while weaker demand for credit would imply softer overall demand and thereby pressure the RBA to lower rates further which can hurt the Australian dollar.

In the chart above we have a historical look at credit growth in annual terms and we can see that both housing and personal credit have been in decline over the past 2 years, as the housing market and economy have slowed - part of the problem the RBA is trying to address with its lower interest rates.

Monday, 27 February 2012 13:47

Euro Firms, Oil Surges

The euro hit a two and a half month high against the US dollar on Friday rising as high as 1.3485 from 1.3356. The G20 appear to put pressure on Germany to increase the size of the eurozone's 500 billion euro rescue fund. European officials hope that the eurozone 'firewall', called the European Stability Mechanism could be increased to ease concerns about a eurozone debt contagion. Germany is the EU's strongest economy and the biggest contributor to the EU stabilization funds but the German parliament must still approve the plan for a stronger firewall. Versus the Japanese yen, the single currency traded as high as 109.99, the highest since October 31, from 106.88. This week the market is focusing on the size of the European Central Bank's liquidity injection to the European banks.

The US dollar weakened against a basket of currencies. Economic data from the US showed New Home Sales fell by 0.9% the previous month while consumer sentiment was revised up in the February reading. Oil prices continue to move higher threatening the global economic recovery and the US Treasury Geithner said he is encouraging conversations with countries planning to cut Iranian imports. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar hit a 9-month high at 81.68 at the start of the new week from 79.98 traded on Friday. The yen weakened following a surprising decision by the Bank of Japan last week to ease its monetary policy in order to support the economy.

The Australian dollar fell against the greenback today weighed by a fragile risk sentiment in the market as well as profit taking. The Aussie took a tumble after the news that Prime Minister Julia Gillard has beaten former Prime Minister Rudd in a battle for labor party leadership. The pair fell to 1.0658 from 1.0754.

Oil prices rallied to 109.91 dollars a barrel from 107.92. Gold edged lower to 1769.50 dollars an ounce today from 1782.47. Gold rose to 1332.74 euro an ounce from 1331.69. Silver ticked lower to 35.34 dollars an ounce from 35.58

Monday, 27 February 2012 13:46

G20 Meeting Fizzles

Risk appetite firmed in the Asian session as the G20 meeting in Mexico failed to produce any meaningful results. That lack of drivers left FX markets in constricted ranges. EURUSD drifted lower from 1.3480 to 1.3432 while USDJPY slid down 60 pips to 80.96. AUDUSD dropped to 1.0660 as Australian PM Gillard defeated Rudd in a leadership race with 73-29 votes, but dont think the vote was the core driver. Asia's regional indices were mixed with Nikkei down -0.14% on the day, the Hang Seng down -0.98% (reversing earlier gains), and the Shanghai Composite leading the pack with a meager gain of 0.30%. After all the hype from Mexico was swept away, the clear take-away was that the world's leading economic powers would not send more cash to Europe until Eurozone members increased their own contributions. Quoting from the communiqué 'Euro area countries will reassess the strength of their support facilities in March. This will provide an essential input in our ongoing consideration to mobilize resources to the IMF.' Comments emulating from the meeting also highlighted the need to create a stronger financial 'firewall' before further external resources would be allocated. In a risk positve result, Chinese Deputy FinMin Zhu stated that he is convinced that the eurozone crisis can be fixed, and said China was prepared to increase assistance to resolve Europe's problems but Zhu also denied market chatter that China is would contribute $100 billion to the IMF. As for today, markets will be without 1st- tier economic data. Trader swill be watching ECB president Barroso and members Praet and Asmussen speaking and comments from EU foreign minister meeting in Brussels. In addition German lower house is scheduled to vote on Greek bailout package while Italy will auction a small amount of short term paper. But with significant event risk this week from the second round of the ECB 3yr LTRO and EU Summit we suspect t risk appetite will remained subsided…fx traders should watch the ranges.

  • G20 calls for boost to euro area firewall before IMF review in April
  • Net EUR short positions on the IMM reduced modestly in the week to Feb

USD

USD weakness continued to extend on Friday, with long positioning against Europe being unwound and this only being partially offset by strength against the yen. Major support for the USD index comes in around 1% below here in the 77.00-77.40 area, and this looks likely to be tested before we see a turn in recent weakness. There is nothing on the calendar today to change things, and the better Michigan sentiment and home sales data on Friday continue to support risk sentiment rather than the USD.

EUR

The EUR and other European currencies made general gains on Friday as optimism related to the Greek bailout and the upcoming 3 year LTRO continued to have its effects, and the market's long term short positioning in EUR/USD continued to be squared. It seems very clear that much of this move is positioning related as the EUR gained most against the USD, CAD, AUD, NZD and JPY where IMM positioning was long, and actually fell against the CHF, suggesting this is not a general risk positive move. Today's vote in the German Lower House should be fairly routine, and the market anticipation of the LTRO suggests the EUR upside will still be favoured, especially since the IMM data released on Friday still showed substantial short positioning, although this has certainly been significantly reduced since the data was collected on Tuesday.

GBP

Friday's GDP data can be interpreted as slightly positive for sterling, as the stronger than expected consumption and export components may lead to stronger investment going forward, even though investment was weak in Q4. UK data has consistently surprised on the upside so far this year, and although there is no great fundamental case for GBP/USD to move back through the 200-day moving average (currently at 1.5907) which its has held below since September, a combination of general risk positive sentiment, better UK numbers and squaring of short risk positions suggest sterling should do well against the more expensive and risk negative currencies.

AUD

The comments from RBA governor Stevens last week led the market to rein in expectations of Australian rate cuts, and 2 year yields are up 37bps in the last month, substantially more than elsewhere. However, the AUD has vastly outperformed yield spreads in the last couple of years as risk premiums have been priced into Europe. If these are priced out, there is substantial potential for the AUD to weaken on the crosses, even in a generally risk positive environment.

Spotlight - JPY now close to fair levels given fundamental concerns - On an objective basis, the metrics used in the chart below suggests that the JPY is now relatively cheap against most G10 currency pairs, with only the USD, EUR and SEK actually at cheaper levels. However, fundamental concerns relating to weak Japanese growth and high debt, as well as the BoJ pledge to target 1% inflation and the new round of QE all suggest this yen weakness is reasonable. Even so, it has moved out of the overvalued camp in recent weeks, and at these levels is certainly no longer the favoured funding currency. That honour should fall squarely on the Swiss franc

Currencies remained in tight ranges in the Asian session with little on the data calendar and no notable news events to drive direction.

Japanese officials have been out patting themselves on the back about the recent JPY decline: PM Noda bragged that the market had reacted 'favourably' to the latest BOJ easing. BOJ’s Shirakawa maintained his dovish stance by saying the nine-member board shares a strong resolve to continue 'powerful' easing until the 1 percent inflation target is in sight but countered that boosting money supply alone would not lead to inflation. USDJPY is holding above the 80 mark but showed little reaction to the comments.

The Kiwi found some support after New Zealand finance minister English commented that the NZ economy is in better shape than many other developed countries and is expected to grow strongly over the next 2 years. He noted that part of that growth will come from the on-going rebuilding efforts after the earthquake, which is expected to add some 1.25 percent to growth each year up to 2016. But he also acknowledged that headwinds to this upbeat outlook and the government’s future budget surplus targets could come from global risks and a Euro-zone meltdown.

We generally saw tight ranges in currency markets overnight though with some small packets of activity on the back of data and news. The EUR was range-bound and mildly affected by the release of European PMI numbers. Earlier optimism as the French PMI surprised to the upside was soon dispelled as Germany’s disappointed (barely holding to 50 contraction/expansion threshold) and the broader Euro-zone PMI stalled below 50 for the 7th straight month. GBP was affected to the downside by the minutes of the last Monetary Policy meeting which showed that 2 members (Posen and Miles) wanted to increase asset purchases by £75 bln rather than the £50 bln announced. USDJPY broke through the 80.0 mark for the first time since November last year while oil prices pushed higher on geo-political concerns in the Middle East.

There was little on the US data front to inspire activity with releases confined to existing home sales. These were better than forecast at 4.3 percent m/m though the previous month’s data was revised down dramatically – from +5.0 percent to -0.5 percent. Wall St eased back from current highs amid growing concerns that higher energy prices would impact any nascent economic rebound. The DJIA closed down 0.21 percent, S&P -0.33 percent and the Nasdaq -0.52 percent.

Data in Wednesday's session showed that the manufacturing and services sectors in the euro zone as a whole contracted in February according to the flash PMI's. however this decline was led by the referee and when considering the largest economy in Europe - Germany - we actually saw services (at 52.6 vs 53.7 in January) and manufacturing (50.1 vs 51.0 in January) register levels above 50 level separating expansion from contraction though both did decline compared to their levels in January.

The PMI's show that Germany should return to growth in the first quarter after posting a small decline in the fourth quarter, though in February services registered most of the growth as manufacturing saw a drop in new orders and a marked fall in new export work as a result of weak demand from within Europe.

German IFO Business Climate to Offer Clues As to What's Next For Germany

In the Thursday European session we another key reading for Germany which is Ifo business climate index a measure of 500 business executives and their expectations for economic growth going forward as well as current business conditions. It is used as a leading indicator to gauge future economic activity and therefore is closely watched by market participants

We can see that this index which had declined throughout most of 2011 had turned around of late driven by improvement in business expectations (in orange), while the assessment of current business situation (in blue) has remained steady over the last four months.

The headline index (in red) is forecast to rise slightly to 108.7 from 108.3, an indication that executives see conditions stable and expect a slight uptick in activity. If the index comes in stronger-than-expected (109 or higher) it would signal that Germany's economy continues to be weather the weakness in the periphery of the euro zone. Such a result should help to support the euro in the European trading session.

On the other hand if the business climate index surprises forecasts to the downside, and falls below its January reading (below 108) then the slow down seen in the PMI's is expected to continue in the next few months, a sign of weakness for the euro zone and therefore a fundamental catalyst that could pressure the euro.

EUR/USD - Will Consolidation Continue, or Can the IFO Index Act to Break Recent Ranging Action

The softer euro zone PMI release did not have a substantial impact on the EUR/USD pair though it - along with another month of contraction in China's manufacturing sector according to its HSBC index - did weaken expectations around the global economy which pressured commodity currencies in Wednesday's trading.

For the EUR/USD the still remains heightened uncertainty regarding how the Greek PSI debt swap will unfold in the coming weeks, whether euro zone governments will decide to increase the size of the firewall (ESM) erected to contain contagion from the Greek debt restructuring, as well as overall questions around Greece's ability to adhere to austerity measures.

In the short term however the German Ifo index - being a tier 1 fundamental release - can act as a catalyst for the pair. There is a zone of resistance between 1.3275 and 1.3290 currently in the pair and a positive release could see the euro testing those levels with a breakout to the topside a signal of further upside risk. A weaker than expected report could cause the pair to test its recent upward sloping support trendline (around 1.3215) and if that is broken the 200 hourly EMA currently at 1.3195 and possible below

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