Stocks, Futures, Bond Picks


See, there are some very high accuracy bond trading methods out there, some that I've developed myself. But the latest discovery by my good friend and trading colleague Jason Fielder is an entirely different approach that is a genuine game changer...


Bond Picks

See, today I've got a very different question for you that could change EVERYTHING... What if you could completely remove that risk and KNOW your pip gain the instant you place your trade? This isn't hype and I'm not being silly, though I could barely believe my eyes when I heard about what a top trader colleague of mine discovered...


Forex Arbitrage Software Review and Download. Winning System by Anthony Trister

This insane piece of software actually uses predictive forecasting to identify trades, figuring out the stop loss and exit points, and managing risk. The combined power of Jason Bond Picks system and forex arbitrage software ...

Ron Daulton

Ron Daulton

The Fibonacci Trading Institute has been instrumental in giving Fibonacci Trading Strategies to shippers everything considered, from youngster merchant through to Hedge Fund merchant - with the help of its Price Action and Fibonacci rule based procedure. Real course gives exact figuring of quantifiable estimations, which accordingly engages the vendors to get clear authentic data. Thusly, they can manage trade peril and trade the board profitably. So what is so novel about the empowering procedures for the Fibonacci Trading Institute?


The Mastery course


Fibonacci Trading Institute, built up by Alla Peters, indicates intermediaries select Fibonacci frameworks that are suitable to any instrument, whenever period and can be traded on any stage. The course itself gives strict trading rules which remove any dealer watchfulness and a strong game plan of rules to trade by. Fibonacci Trading Institute gives preparing on Fibonacci Trading methods to a wide scope of merchants, from fledgling through Hedge Fund Trader. The course is applicable to Day, Position and Option Traders, Forex Traders and Stock Traders.


What the course joins?


The Fibonacci Trading Institute gives:


•           Live Online classes: To teach the Fibonacci Method using Price Action for Entry and Fibonacci for exit.


•           Daily trading room: To empower the vendors to pick up capability with the Fibonacci Trading Method and to see the straightforwardness, precision and consistency of the system.


•           Online modules: Available for access each moment of consistently


•           Fibonacci strategies: Emphasize the sensible and concise theory which can be traded on whenever period and any market.


•           Proprietary Fibonacci device: That can be presented on any phase with central outlining workplaces


•           Trading Psychology: Addressed all through the course


•           Group course: 8-week term


•           Private coaching: 16-week range, driven by private direction and Group Session get to


Fibonacci Trading Room


The Fibonacci Trading Institute passes on requesting for guests to join the Fibonacci Trading Room on seven days by week premise. The Trading Room shows the precision of the Fibonacci Method in the live markets and on various timespans. The Fibonacci Method is a bit of the Fibonacci Mastery course offered by the Fibonacci Trading Institute since 2011.


Fibonacci Trading Institute offers the Fibonacci Mastery Course to merchants in the USA and from abroad and to all elements of dealer. The live online classes in the Trading room give the perfect condition to learn Price Action trading in blend with the precision of Fibonacci.


Fibonacci's support in insightful graphing is immensely basic as it is one of just a bunch couple of methodology that can anticipate where extremely important occasions and reversal areas exist inside a market's esteem movement, and at what precise future esteem point. The Fibonacci Method used at the Fibonacci Trading Institute utilizes Price Action for Entry and Fibonacci for Exit, on any instrument and at whatever point diagram.


The Fibonacci Trading Institute attempts to discard all agent partition by utilizing repetitive instances of cost identified with their 'key reversal' centers. Standard examination utilizes 'slacking' markers, and ALWAYS behind the judicious twist. This elite strategy at the Fibonacci Trading Institute isn't customizing, contains NO pointers, and it might be traded from any phase with Fibonacci Tool.


Fibonacci Trading Institute have been demonstrating this strategy universally since 2011 to merchants everything being equivalent; from area level to Professional, in family work environments and even out to Hedge Funds and Prop Desks. The Fibonacci Trading Institute Method taught in online live classes will tell you the best way to perceive these key domains using prohibitive Fibonacci Techniques. Fibonacci Trading Institute has affirm the accuracy of the Fibonacci Method in the trading room, yet through various open and private mediums and web based life. The precision of the methodology is in such intrigue that Fibonacci Trading Institute by and by shows retail merchants just as Hedge Fund intermediaries.


The Fibonacci Trading Institute holds quick to strict Risk Management controls and the sensible trading rules contemplate the tally of quantifiable estimations for clear genuine data. Fibonacci Trading institute displays the technique in live markets on S&P. Strategy applies to any security, Index, ETF, Options or Forex. For up to the minute news at Fibonacci Trading Institute, you should scrutinized our Blog for more information.


Alla Peters, the coordinator of the Fibonacci Trading Institute prohibitive Fibonacci Method, gives Fibonacci Analysis on the S&P500 E-little Futures every morning at the market open in the S&P E-littler than regular Futures Trading Room. One of the key thoughts at the Fibonacci Trading Institute is the Accuracy of Fibonacci Method. Alla displays Fibonacci Extensions and Fibonacci Retracements systems instructed in the course on various timeframes from 1 min to 60 min, without fail and month to month plots on any instrument.


The Fibonacci Trading Institute prohibitive Fibonacci levels which Alla has made have unparalleled precision and when these key Fibonacci Ratios are used properly — they can convey basic results. Alla demonstrates these gauges in the Fibonacci Mastery Course from complete students through to fence ventures traders, and insight with theoretical stock speculations using absolutely a similar condition on whole deal stocks and records.


Fibonacci Trading Institute Key Notes for Day Trading Entries.


• The 60 min Fibonacci Levels remain the key Trend Levels for intraday trading.


• All trades are taken from Fibonacci Support/Resistance and never into them.


• Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Yearly Fibonacci Levels are recognized and considered in day trading as these measurements are the spot Institutions trade from.


All Fibonacci Retracement/Extension are Proprietary Fibonacci Levels which apply to any instrument and at whatever point layout and can be plotted on any stage.


Decisions Point 1 is a key Fibonacci level and perceives the completion of the minor example. This is the Key Target just in counter example trades.


• If the example is Minor: cost will sort out an astounding reversal from this district.


• If the example is Major: cost will break this domain anyway never trade into it.


Decision Point 2 is the accompanying key Fibonacci Level which has lesser criticalness anyway ought to be respected and never went into. This is a Key Target in Trending Markets.


Reversal Zones are design reversal levels where esteem arranges an all out reversal 80% of the time and example continuation trades are never taken into this domain. In case the rules for the Fibonacci Strategy are met, by then backwards design birthplace trades are taken from here. If the market is inclining, by then cost will orchestrate simply healing advancements in Fibonacci Reversal Zones. This is really when the data of the framework rules is indispensable.


Oblige us at the Fibonacci Trading Institute to get acquainted with the Fibonacci Mastery Method.

Wednesday, 23 January 2019 12:12

Jason Bond Picks, system review

I have been a character from Jason Bond Picks gain for a bit more than 12 months, and will impart my revel in to his aid of help you agree on a preference whether his management is for you. I'm able to provide you with authentic assessment of his administration, the extraordinary and the awful.

I commenced with an account once I previously agreed to simply accept his management. I committed some pretty large errors right away. I think my greatest mix-up was that I positioned to a severe diploma too much cash into each alternate and while Jason said the change wasn't working and to get out, I held up trusting it'd pivot.

I lost nearly discovering that exercising. I had a protracted manner to move; fortuitously Jason has a large quantity of instructive fabric on his web page so I tailored swiftly.

As I experienced each one of the recordings on his web page I started out to get step by step all right together with his picks and why he turned into making them.

Jason Bond picks evaluation:

Jason Bond Picks maximum likely has more courses in an effort to alternate and profit than some other stock selecting provider that I have applied.

• There are regular email and immediately message cautions of latest exchanges or exchanges which can be being finished off. Objective is 5-20% additions in keeping with alternate.

• There's a really dynamic and supportive communicate live with some super dealers and mediators.

• Day buying and selling alerts throughout the day through the talk live with Luke Murry and Bart Van.

• A morning email with the times plan on what shares are setting up for an alternate, similarly to Jason's point of view towards the marketplace.

• A daily watch listing Jason Bond selections so you can monitor all Jason's vacant positions and what he is watching out for a potential exchange.

• The preparing available on his site is extremely 2d to none. I have by no means determined a lot vital records in single vicinity, on the off chance that you have room time table-sensible and want you could without plenty of a stretch pass all of it alone in the occasion which you need to.

• There may be a member application in order that inside the occasion that you want to inform your partners and make a couple of dollars additionally.

The non-stop content and e-mail cautions are for me the most critical. In view that I paintings an all day work yet I do approach my exchanging account, its ideal for me. While I get content with an alternate opportunity I will login to my report and location the trade.

I recognize precisely where I need to get in and a forestall misfortune inside the occasion that the alternate does not work out. Not everyone in all them do, Jason is not immaculate.

So whilst I'm at my everyday every day employment, the Jason alternatives do the diligent paintings of coming across me the first-rate exchanges dependent on his criteria of an inventory that has the impetuses for a prime move.

Take into account notwithstanding the reality that Jason offers you his front cost, the market can move clearly brief and when you can put your change you can’t see that fee.

So in these situations, I without a doubt keep up multiple hours and quite often the value will go into reverse sufficient for me to get in at his cost or pretty near. Whatever you do, do not pursue the stock, I’ve misplaced a outstanding deal of cash doing that, benefit from me and do not do it!

The Chat Room:

at the off chance that you have a sufficiently sizable record to day exchange ($25,000) and may watch the marketplace amid the day then you may LOVE his communicate room! Head informal investor Luke Murray puts out something like multi day exchanges and occasionally at the least 30. Within the occasion which you like to day trade you may be in paradise.

All cautions are constantly as Luke takes them and while he does it makes the change geared up sound so you do not want to look at the communicate room, inside the occasion that you listen the sound, you realize an alternate has been set and to test and notice what it's miles.

Simplest an expression of caution, you need to be speedy, whilst the exchange comes through you have to put the exchange ASAP. On the off risk that when you are organized to place the trade and the fee has run excessively far, I'd pause or sincerely bypass on the alternate, you will select no longer to accept the shaft!

Likewise if you're going to day exchange you may require a minimal attempt expert like Bond alternatives (this is who I exploit) in this kind of case that you may positioned 10-30 exchanges every day and paying a $10 according to exchange you will get killed in commissions. Jason Bond Picks, as an example is just a $ fee and the changing stage is quite outstanding.

So now when I take a "wiped out" day i will make it a beneficial free day!

The following is a brief video of the communicate room so you can see it for yourself.

Every day Watch Lists:

Jason makes an everyday watch bond picks listing for us endorser, this rundown has the shares that he feels are organized to make a primary pass dependent on his specialized research.

It's far constantly reachable on his web site with a purpose to audit. He'll listing his reasons why they are there and now and again a video demonstrating more element why he loves it.

Every morning you'll get an electronic mail that offers you his point of view in the direction of the marketplace and what he hopes to occur, alongside any shares he is hoping to take a Bond Picks exchange.

The Portfolio:

Jason facts his present vacant positions at the website. It shows numerous offers he has, section cost and an open advantage and his alternate notes. The subsequent is a case of his portfolio.


Here is an outline of Jason's changing advantages at some point of the last few years. As should be obvious some totally sturdy will increase, with 2016 being a beast yr. As a source of attitude the S&P 500 returned about 12%!

Instructive fabric:

For every single new component is a DVD that retails for $497 but is obtainable unfastened for all endorsers. It consists of most people of the exercises Jason has found out in the course of the years, at the off chance which you take all of them in and tail them you can in all likelihood go out without all people else.

There are extra than 50 video exercises on his web site and tallying that cover factors like; fundamental specialized exam, help and obstruction, filtering the market and coins the executives. These recordings reveal to you how and why he picks the stocks he does.

Jason was once a grade instructor so his recordings are anything but hard to pursue and instructive.

Jason additionally holds week by means of week on line courses where he discusses the commercial enterprise sectors while all is said in accomplished, his flows belongings at that point opens it up for an inquiry and solution consultation. Within the event which you are misty on a part of his fabric you can make an inquiry and discover an answer.

Inside the event that you are humiliated to ask in an open collecting, you could e-mail him your inquiry and he's going to hit you up fast with an answer. There is most in all likelihood no other administration with his dimension of customer advantage. Here is handiest a touch example of what is available:

Companion program:

within the event which you realize some folks that are economic specialists/brokers you can make some $ by means of alluding them to Jason's administration. You can permit them to make some cash changing and earnings for yourself. It is a fulfillment win!

The bottom Line:

The most effective cause you should agree to simply accept an inventory picking management, is on the off danger that they income than they price. With Jason Bond selections that has by no means been a trouble for me.

It's no longer in reality me closing a component, you will keep walking into many people within the visit room who've been a element for a enormous length of time.

People are not going to paste round and pay for a management in the event that they may be losing coins!

At the off hazard that you have accomplished any exploration on Jason you may maximum likely find out individuals slamming him, but these are people who've by no means utilized his management or had impossible goals.

You aren't going to make a million dollars from a $2,000 account!

I've applied many administrations in the course of the years and I've not discovered a superior management than Jason Bond. He has remarkable instructive substances to advantage from (greater than 50 instructive exchanging recordings and checking).

His consumer gain is top notch and you experience that Jason truly has your exceptional enthusiasm on the most fundamental degree and is doing all that he can to earnings.

It’s a superb sentiment profiting quite tons continuously, in which I have been losing cash for two or 3 years endeavoring to make experience of it all by myself. Jason's picks isn't only your ordinary inventory selecting management that offers you alarms without the reasons why he is choosing the stocks. Jason discloses to you why in addition to references one of the exchanging recordings inside the occasion that you want to comprehend the specialized setup.

When you realize why he is making the change you will experience substantially extra satisfied with taking them. When you completely see all the specialized setups and a way to display screen for shares you may go out in my view on the off danger which you need to. I incline towards you to remain don't forget, the administration is extraordinarily a deal.

I have executed nicely with his management and that I parent you'll additionally.

FYI, if it is now not too much problem recognized there aren't any "coupons" or limits for his management. I have visible a few humans ensuring they've one, they do not exist. Likewise he would not have any "free Trials". You may agree to simply accept his email list for nothing but it’s now not actually his management, it’s typically a few stocks he is viewing.

On a couple of occasion in line with year he offers a multi day, $1 preliminary but on the off danger that you are not kidding about swing replacing there is no motivation to pause.

FAQ's approximately Jason Bond picks

Q. Is there a free Trial or Coupon for a markdown?

A. No is the reaction to both. multiple times each 12 months he does provide seven days initial for a $1 yet in the event which you are not kidding approximately replacing why pause?

Q. would you be able to purchase Jason's inventory selections at indistinguishable price from he receives?

A. usually you could display symptoms of development value. Check out the morning watch rundown and choose what stocks top rate you depending on the setups. Broadly speaking I enter earlier than Jason conveys an alarm, at that factor its equitable affirmation I made a first rate change. You must study all of the preparation recordings earlier than endeavoring this as it can. Due to the fact Jason Bond Picks would not caution the inventory doesn't mean it cannot be an awesome exchange.

Q. would you be capable of prescribe a merchant to utilize?

A. really, I like alternatives residence; you could peruse my Jason Bond choices evaluate. It’s a perfect rebate professional for dynamic swing sellers.

Q. What sum of money do I must begin?

A. that is an excessive inquiry to answer, I composed a whole publish on it. Basically, do not take a stab at swing replacing with under $2,000

Q. I do not stay in the US, would I be capable of anyhow be part of?

A. surely, you have to open a report with a financier that enables you to purchase shares on the US trades. There are various that do, options residence and Interactive agents are that I take advantage of and people in many nations can open a document with them.

When you first are part of, particularly in the occasion which you are new to replacing, you ought to take all of Jason

Saturday, 03 August 2013 11:46

Forex Black Book Review

Forex Black Book is a software which has now been reviewed on the site is to help understand the true features of the software before one can think investing money on it. This review is to explain mechanisms hidden behind fluctuations of the software. The software developed by Dustin Pass is a trend following software that will assist the traders in increasing their profitability from foreign currency trading. Dustin claims that his software will also help the traders who never gained in the forex market.

Dustin offers a free trial offer to gain some familiarly of his forex blackbook, from time to time. He conducts free webinars as well to help traders more about currency trading and how his software can allow the traders to optimize their trading benefits. But a trader who is interested in gaining more insight about the software can consult the in-depth review on the site . The review on the site however maintains that the software can be very useful both for the beginners as well as experienced traders.

Discussing about the advantages of forex blackbook, the site points out the three significant benefits that a trader can achieve from it. First, it can clearly show the market that would be more profitable for a trader to do the business. This also shows the precise timings of entering and exiting the market and thus helps traders in important decision making. Finally, the software helps to choose the maximum profit points and choose the stop-loss point for each and every trade. Besides these three benefits, the tool can help the traders in several ways, maintains the review on the site.

The website forex black book points out that Dustin is the CEO of Forex Traders Daily, and his personally launched software includes his own personal experience, and thus, the tool is going to benefit all the traders willing to make big money in the currency market. According to the site, one can always rely on the forex blackbook.

Wednesday, 29 February 2012 06:02

Fed's Semiannual Economic Update

On Wednesday at 1000ET/1500GMT, Fed Chair Bernanke will present the Fed's semi-annual economic update to the House Financial Services Committee. Headlines from his prepared remarks will flash across at the start of his testimony, and Q&A later will provide for more headlines.

In his prepared remarks, we think Bernanke will strike a cautiously optimistic tone in light of recent stronger US economic data reports. But we also think he will highlight ongoing headwinds to the US recovery (primarily from potential fallout from the Eurozone debt crisis, still too-high unemployment, and a cratered US housing market, higher gasoline prices to boot ), keeping the overall slant of his outlook on the dovish side. We think Bernanke will make some mention that the Fed is still considering whether to provide additional stimulus to the recovery (keeping options open), but that he won't make any explicit commitments that fresh stimulus is on the way. The risk here, in our view, is that Bernanke does signal that the Fed is closer to a third round of asset purchases (QE3), potentially sharply undermining the USD (especially USD/JPY) and stoking further gains in risk assets, like stocks, commodities, and commodity FX (AUD, CAD, and NZD).

On balance, we think Bernanke's likely cautiously optimistic and yet dovish outlook should be supportive of risk sentiment overall, and thus tend to bias the greenback to further weakness. However, markets will still be digesting the results of the ECB's LTRO from earlier in the European morning (as well as the Feb. Chicago PMI 15 minutes before Bernanke), possibly making Wednesday a 'one-two' type of trading day.

If the LTRO is positive for risk appetite and risk assets have already rallied into Bernanke's testimony, we would be on guard for a potential risk reversal lower on profit-taking, especially if Bernanke highlights the vulnerabilities of the US recovery and the risks for setbacks. Alternatively, if Bernanke downplays the need for additional stimulus based on an improved outlook, markets may also resort to profit-taking, as QE3 is less likely. Only if he provides more specific indications that QE3 seems more likely would we then expect risk to rally further.

If the LTRO leaves markets wanting, and risk sentiment deteriorates or succumbs to profit-taking after the fact, Bernanke's testimony may actually provide the opposite effect to the scenario outlined above, potentially leading to revived risk appetite if the Fed Chair expresses greater optimism, or the determination to act if the recovery falters.

In terms of price levels to watch, key short-term EUR/USD support comes in at 1.3330/50 area, while strength above 1.3475/85 highs may see gains extend toward 1.3570/80. In USD/JPY, we look at the 79.70/80.00 as important short-term support, while strength back above 81.00 may see new highs toward 82.00. Overall, our preference is to use pullbacks in USD/JPY and JPY-crosses as opportunities to enter longs, potentially in the 78.50/79.00 area in USD/JPY and 84.00/50 in AUD/JPY. We would abandon that strategy if Bernanke gives strong signals that QE3 is more likely than not.
Wednesday, 29 February 2012 06:01

Japan's Industrial Production Beat Expectations

Japan's industrial production advanced more than expectations, indicating that the world's third-largest economy may return to growth this quarter.

The Japanese economy released January's preliminary reading for the industrial production, where it retreated to 2.0% compared with the prior reading of 3.8, also it missed expectations of 1.5%.

On the other hand, January's preliminary reading for the annualized industrial production advanced to -1.2% compared with the prior reading of -4.3%, also it exceeded expectations of -1.6%.

As, the nation's huge manufacturers like Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. are recovering from disruptions that caused by Thailand's floods and the earthquake and tsunami that destroyed a huge part of Japan.

Also, the reconstruction work and incentives for purchases of environmentally friendly cars may help to revive the economy that shrank an annualized 2.3% in the fourth quarter.

the Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's approved a 2.5 trillion yen ($31 billion) extra budget, that passed by the parliament this month, included 300 billion yen for the subsidy program. Car sales jumped 24 percent in January from a year earlier, the most in 22 years.

additionally, the progress in containing Europe's debt crisis, along with the weakening yen and monetary easing in emerging nations may help Japan's economy to recover.

Looking at the Australian dollar against the US dollar we see that the AUD/USD cross has been predominately consolidating over the last month after a very strong rally during January. What we're looking for now is a break of consolidation to either side, which should signify the next leg for this pair.

The two options then are an extension of the January rally, with a break of the consolidation pattern to the topside, and a move towards the 2011 highs near 1.1050, or a sharper correction to the rally over the previous 2 months, if price action breaks through our recent supports near 1.0625 and 1.0593. A third option would be for this pair to continue its sideways action, consolidating further prior to a break either way.

Will RBA Cut Rates Further This Year - Key Question/Factor for AUD

While the AUD is most primarily based on general risk sentiment - where equities and commodities go - and we have a very big sentiment event with the ECB LTRO 2 in Wednesday's trading session, we still want to keep our eye on the key fundamental releases which will be coming out of Australia in the upcoming Asian trading session - including most important one retail sales.

This report should help give us the most up-to-date view of the economy and what the RBA will be examining when it meets next to decide interest rates.

At their previous RBA meeting, the central bank surprised markets by holding steady at 4.25% instead of initiating another 25 basis point rate reduction. However, the concluding sentence of the statement said that the bank “judged that if demand conditions were to weaken materially, the inflation outlook would provide scope for a further easing in monetary policy.”

We'll have our chance to see demand conditions via the retail sales, new home sales, and private sector credit which are slated for release in the upcoming Asian session.

What To Watch For in Australia's Retail Sales Report

The key to look for from tonight's data is the retail sales report as it gives us the clearest indication of consumers spending.

As you can see in the chart above retail sales have been on a downward trend over the last six months and were negative in December. The consensus forecast is for a 0.3% increase in January.

If sales come in as expected it would break this downward trend in the indicator, and could give support to the RBA stance that interest rates are where they should be unless the economy deteriorates further.

A positive release in which retail sales are climb above 0.3% - say 0.5% or above - would only further hammer that theme home and could create the conditions for the Aussie to push towards its highs from the last two weeks (other risk events notwithstanding).

A negative release - one that undershoot expectations and shows either flat or negative sales in January would increase concerns about the wider economy and the prospects for consumer spending to drive growth in the early part of the year.

This would be a reason to increase pressure on the RBA to lower rates further and as a result would be a negative fundamental factor for the Australian dollar and on the face of it should weaken the Aussie from a fundamental interest-rate perspective.

Housing and Credit - Gauging Other Measures of Demand

While the retail sales release is the highlight in the batch of data released in the Wednesday Australian morning session, we can gleam important information from the 2 other reports we have on tap - new home sales and private sector credit growth.

New home sales - have been certainly rocky of late posting a negative 4.9% drop in sales in December after a rebound in November. Soft readings in this indicator means that households are not confident, or don't have the financial security to undertake such a big purchase.

This is an important measure of domestic demand then for us as economy and central bank watchers and the softer the housing market the more responsive the RBA should be. Another negative reading here would increase calls for lower interest rates from the RBA, while a bounce back into positive territory should be seen as a positive factor. However, we can see that Australia housing market is at a much lower pace than it was in the first half of 2011, and even small positive gains are not indicative of a healthy market.

Private credit data - the amount of new credit taken on by households - has been fairly consistent of late increasing 0.3% the previous two months, and 0.2% before that. The forecast for January is for a 0.3% increase and similarly to the retail sales and new home sales data we have talked about, private credit is a reading of overall domestic demand.

If private sector credit demand comes in above expectations - surprises to the topside - that would be a favorable fundamental condition for the Australian dollar while weaker demand for credit would imply softer overall demand and thereby pressure the RBA to lower rates further which can hurt the Australian dollar.

In the chart above we have a historical look at credit growth in annual terms and we can see that both housing and personal credit have been in decline over the past 2 years, as the housing market and economy have slowed - part of the problem the RBA is trying to address with its lower interest rates.

Monday, 27 February 2012 13:47

Euro Firms, Oil Surges

The euro hit a two and a half month high against the US dollar on Friday rising as high as 1.3485 from 1.3356. The G20 appear to put pressure on Germany to increase the size of the eurozone's 500 billion euro rescue fund. European officials hope that the eurozone 'firewall', called the European Stability Mechanism could be increased to ease concerns about a eurozone debt contagion. Germany is the EU's strongest economy and the biggest contributor to the EU stabilization funds but the German parliament must still approve the plan for a stronger firewall. Versus the Japanese yen, the single currency traded as high as 109.99, the highest since October 31, from 106.88. This week the market is focusing on the size of the European Central Bank's liquidity injection to the European banks.

The US dollar weakened against a basket of currencies. Economic data from the US showed New Home Sales fell by 0.9% the previous month while consumer sentiment was revised up in the February reading. Oil prices continue to move higher threatening the global economic recovery and the US Treasury Geithner said he is encouraging conversations with countries planning to cut Iranian imports. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar hit a 9-month high at 81.68 at the start of the new week from 79.98 traded on Friday. The yen weakened following a surprising decision by the Bank of Japan last week to ease its monetary policy in order to support the economy.

The Australian dollar fell against the greenback today weighed by a fragile risk sentiment in the market as well as profit taking. The Aussie took a tumble after the news that Prime Minister Julia Gillard has beaten former Prime Minister Rudd in a battle for labor party leadership. The pair fell to 1.0658 from 1.0754.

Oil prices rallied to 109.91 dollars a barrel from 107.92. Gold edged lower to 1769.50 dollars an ounce today from 1782.47. Gold rose to 1332.74 euro an ounce from 1331.69. Silver ticked lower to 35.34 dollars an ounce from 35.58

Monday, 27 February 2012 13:46

G20 Meeting Fizzles

Risk appetite firmed in the Asian session as the G20 meeting in Mexico failed to produce any meaningful results. That lack of drivers left FX markets in constricted ranges. EURUSD drifted lower from 1.3480 to 1.3432 while USDJPY slid down 60 pips to 80.96. AUDUSD dropped to 1.0660 as Australian PM Gillard defeated Rudd in a leadership race with 73-29 votes, but dont think the vote was the core driver. Asia's regional indices were mixed with Nikkei down -0.14% on the day, the Hang Seng down -0.98% (reversing earlier gains), and the Shanghai Composite leading the pack with a meager gain of 0.30%. After all the hype from Mexico was swept away, the clear take-away was that the world's leading economic powers would not send more cash to Europe until Eurozone members increased their own contributions. Quoting from the communiqué 'Euro area countries will reassess the strength of their support facilities in March. This will provide an essential input in our ongoing consideration to mobilize resources to the IMF.' Comments emulating from the meeting also highlighted the need to create a stronger financial 'firewall' before further external resources would be allocated. In a risk positve result, Chinese Deputy FinMin Zhu stated that he is convinced that the eurozone crisis can be fixed, and said China was prepared to increase assistance to resolve Europe's problems but Zhu also denied market chatter that China is would contribute $100 billion to the IMF. As for today, markets will be without 1st- tier economic data. Trader swill be watching ECB president Barroso and members Praet and Asmussen speaking and comments from EU foreign minister meeting in Brussels. In addition German lower house is scheduled to vote on Greek bailout package while Italy will auction a small amount of short term paper. But with significant event risk this week from the second round of the ECB 3yr LTRO and EU Summit we suspect t risk appetite will remained subsided…fx traders should watch the ranges.

  • G20 calls for boost to euro area firewall before IMF review in April
  • Net EUR short positions on the IMM reduced modestly in the week to Feb


USD weakness continued to extend on Friday, with long positioning against Europe being unwound and this only being partially offset by strength against the yen. Major support for the USD index comes in around 1% below here in the 77.00-77.40 area, and this looks likely to be tested before we see a turn in recent weakness. There is nothing on the calendar today to change things, and the better Michigan sentiment and home sales data on Friday continue to support risk sentiment rather than the USD.


The EUR and other European currencies made general gains on Friday as optimism related to the Greek bailout and the upcoming 3 year LTRO continued to have its effects, and the market's long term short positioning in EUR/USD continued to be squared. It seems very clear that much of this move is positioning related as the EUR gained most against the USD, CAD, AUD, NZD and JPY where IMM positioning was long, and actually fell against the CHF, suggesting this is not a general risk positive move. Today's vote in the German Lower House should be fairly routine, and the market anticipation of the LTRO suggests the EUR upside will still be favoured, especially since the IMM data released on Friday still showed substantial short positioning, although this has certainly been significantly reduced since the data was collected on Tuesday.


Friday's GDP data can be interpreted as slightly positive for sterling, as the stronger than expected consumption and export components may lead to stronger investment going forward, even though investment was weak in Q4. UK data has consistently surprised on the upside so far this year, and although there is no great fundamental case for GBP/USD to move back through the 200-day moving average (currently at 1.5907) which its has held below since September, a combination of general risk positive sentiment, better UK numbers and squaring of short risk positions suggest sterling should do well against the more expensive and risk negative currencies.


The comments from RBA governor Stevens last week led the market to rein in expectations of Australian rate cuts, and 2 year yields are up 37bps in the last month, substantially more than elsewhere. However, the AUD has vastly outperformed yield spreads in the last couple of years as risk premiums have been priced into Europe. If these are priced out, there is substantial potential for the AUD to weaken on the crosses, even in a generally risk positive environment.

Spotlight - JPY now close to fair levels given fundamental concerns - On an objective basis, the metrics used in the chart below suggests that the JPY is now relatively cheap against most G10 currency pairs, with only the USD, EUR and SEK actually at cheaper levels. However, fundamental concerns relating to weak Japanese growth and high debt, as well as the BoJ pledge to target 1% inflation and the new round of QE all suggest this yen weakness is reasonable. Even so, it has moved out of the overvalued camp in recent weeks, and at these levels is certainly no longer the favoured funding currency. That honour should fall squarely on the Swiss franc

Currencies remained in tight ranges in the Asian session with little on the data calendar and no notable news events to drive direction.

Japanese officials have been out patting themselves on the back about the recent JPY decline: PM Noda bragged that the market had reacted 'favourably' to the latest BOJ easing. BOJ’s Shirakawa maintained his dovish stance by saying the nine-member board shares a strong resolve to continue 'powerful' easing until the 1 percent inflation target is in sight but countered that boosting money supply alone would not lead to inflation. USDJPY is holding above the 80 mark but showed little reaction to the comments.

The Kiwi found some support after New Zealand finance minister English commented that the NZ economy is in better shape than many other developed countries and is expected to grow strongly over the next 2 years. He noted that part of that growth will come from the on-going rebuilding efforts after the earthquake, which is expected to add some 1.25 percent to growth each year up to 2016. But he also acknowledged that headwinds to this upbeat outlook and the government’s future budget surplus targets could come from global risks and a Euro-zone meltdown.

We generally saw tight ranges in currency markets overnight though with some small packets of activity on the back of data and news. The EUR was range-bound and mildly affected by the release of European PMI numbers. Earlier optimism as the French PMI surprised to the upside was soon dispelled as Germany’s disappointed (barely holding to 50 contraction/expansion threshold) and the broader Euro-zone PMI stalled below 50 for the 7th straight month. GBP was affected to the downside by the minutes of the last Monetary Policy meeting which showed that 2 members (Posen and Miles) wanted to increase asset purchases by £75 bln rather than the £50 bln announced. USDJPY broke through the 80.0 mark for the first time since November last year while oil prices pushed higher on geo-political concerns in the Middle East.

There was little on the US data front to inspire activity with releases confined to existing home sales. These were better than forecast at 4.3 percent m/m though the previous month’s data was revised down dramatically – from +5.0 percent to -0.5 percent. Wall St eased back from current highs amid growing concerns that higher energy prices would impact any nascent economic rebound. The DJIA closed down 0.21 percent, S&P -0.33 percent and the Nasdaq -0.52 percent.
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