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Wednesday, 16 November 2011 18:30

U.S. Consumer Prices See Mild Decline in October

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.08% in October, slightly below market expectations for a flat reading.

Annual inflation now stands at 3.5%, 0.4 percentage points lower with respect to the previous month.

On the other hand, core inflation - a measure that excludes energy and food prices - gained 0.2% on the month. As a result, annual core inflation is now up to 2.1% from 2.0% in September.

The decline in headline inflation resulted from a 1.1% monthly decline in the transport sub-component, which was caused by a 3.1% m/m decline in gasoline prices and a 0.4% drop in vehicle prices. The recreation sub-component of CPI also saw a mild 0.1% decline in October.

Increases in apparel (+0.4%), medical care (+0.5%), housing (+0.2%), and food and beverages (+0.1%) partially offset the decline in overall CPI.

Key Implications

The mild decline in consumer prices registered during October was mainly caused by a sizeable drop in gasoline prices. Barring any major shock to commodity prices - crude oil in particular - inflation should trend lower in the coming months. We project core inflation to end this year around 2.2%, and to average 2.1% in 2012.

In the short term, a moderation in headline inflation, in combination with core inflation hovering around 2% and stable inflation expectations means the Federal Reserve's FOMC will likely put more emphasis on the full employment portion of its dual mandate. However, this does not mean further monetary easing is in the offing.

It would take a turn for the worse coming out of Europe or a material deterioration of the U.S. economic growth outlook, perhaps due to fiscal policy paralysis taking hold in Washington, to prompt the Fed into bolder actions. Therefore, by its own merits, today's CPI report does not materially alter the landscape ahead of the next FOMC meeting on December 13th.

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