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Thursday, 24 November 2011 11:37

U.K. Third Quarter GDP Unrevised, Driven By Government Spending And Stockbuilding

U.K. growth in the third quarter remained unrevised at 0.5% on the rise government spending and stockbuilding.

GDP preliminary figure released today showed that both quarterly and annual readings remained unchanged at 0.5%, in line with both advanced and forecasted readings.

On the quarter, government spending advanced 0.9% compared with the previous 1.1%, whereas Inventories soared by 2.9 billion pounds where Stockbuilding was boosted by manufacturing, electricity, gas and water supply.

Gross fixed capital formation, on the other hand, recorded 0.2% drop from the prior 1.7%.

Separately, total business investment slumped 1.4% from the prior 11.6%, where consumer spending came at 0.0%.

Exports slipped 1.0% from the preceding -1.3% while imports surged 0.3% from -0.3%.

While the pound retreated against the dollar during the quarter it advanced versus the euro, noting that euro area countries are the main trading partners for the U.K.

Thus, it is clear that Britain was affected by the slowdown in global economies and escalating European debt woes, which moves in line with the latest announcements of U.K. policy makers.

This month, MPC members voted unanimously for holding interest rate at 0.50% and the APF at 275 billion pounds, referring that the decision is deemed appropriate and serves reaching the bank's inflation target of 2% over the medium term.

Minutes for November's monetary decision revealed that the main threat comes from the escalating European debt crisis that led to drop in confidence, turbulences in financial markets which in turn affected Briton's spending.

The outlook for both growth and inflation is likely to depend on the latest developments in the euro zone, according to the inflation report.

Yesterday, David Miles said the “return to more normal rates of growth is something that is going to bea gradual process over the course of the next two years.”

Meanwhile, there are fears that the economy will witness negative growth levels in the fourth quarter amid the contraction in manufacturing and services sectors, according to the latest PMI figures.

Last week, the BoE's quarterly inflation report showed a cut in growth and inflation projections. Hence, with the current sluggish recovery pace and expected ease in inflation, the BoE may be encouraged to expand the APF to give a strong boost growth.

King said policy makers may be ready to add further stimuli in December to avert experiencing another recession, yet he said he is in favor of waiting till the end of the four-month program announced in October to see its effect.

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