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Thursday, 15 September 2011 07:44

RBNZ Keeps Interest Rates On Hold, SNB Likely To Follow Suit

Market Brief

Yesterday's conference call between the leaders of Germany, France and Greece offered few new developments about the debt crisis solution, and yet market sentiment has managed to stabilize; with European and US equity markets closing strongly higher and the Nikkei trading +1.8% today. Much like previous statements, Merkel, Sarkozy and Papandreou committed to implementing the bailout agreements as soon as possible in a bid to allay market fears. Clearly their stand had the desired effect; markets have assumed that this declaration of faith in Greece from the Eurozone's two most influential leaders means that the next tranche of EU/IMF funds will be paid out without further questioning. EURUSD is now trading comfortably above 1.3700 (having hit an overnight high of 1.3783), but the situation remains fragile, so we cannot rule out another setback.

Meanwhile, earlier this morning the RBNZ left interest rates unchanged at 2.5%, noting that heightened global risks make it prudent to remain on hold for the time being. That being said, it was made clear that if these global risks turn out to only have a mild impact on the New Zealand economy, rates are likely to increase. In spite of the RBNZ leaving the door open to future tightening, NZDUSD was not able to benefit from the announcements, instead falling to lows of 0.8121.

Looking ahead, we agree with market consensus that the SNB will not adjust the 3-month LIBOR target range today from its current level around 0.00%. Unlike some of its central bank peers, the SNB does not have to balance growth risks with high inflation issues. In fact, last week's CPI reading for August was extremely benign at -0.3% MoM, 0.2% YoY; and inflation expectations remain firmly anchored. If anything, the Swiss are more concerned about the threat of deflation than inflation, and would probably welcome an uptick in CPI. This is fortuitous, as the SNB is still committed to weakening the CHF, and so keeping a very unattractive policy rate will have the dual benefit of continuing to discourage short-term safe haven flows, and fanning inflation higher. In today's statement, the market may be expecting some level of clarity regarding the EURCHF 1.2000 'floor', yet we don't believe too many additional details will be forthcoming.

Aside from these two central bank announcements, it's a busy day on the economic releases calendar. This morning's docket includes UK retail sales and Eurozone CPI, while this afternoon's schedule includes US CPI, Empire manufacturing survey, jobless claims data, industrial production and Philadelphia Fed survey.

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