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Friday, 16 September 2011 08:33

New Dollar Liquidity Operations Boost Risk Appetite

Market Brief

It's been a very strong session for risk appetite as markets have been appeased by the news that numerous European central banks and the BoJ were opening dollar swap lines with the Fed. The ECB announced yesterday afternoon that they would provide new dollar loan facilities to European banks, as precaution to ensure that funding issues do not hamper the financial system going into year end. The planned three-month USD liquidity operations are the product of coordinated action between the ECB, Fed, SNB, BoE and BoJ, and will operate in addition to the bank's usual 7-day offerings. In response, financial stocks rallied and EURUSD jumped to highs of 1.3937, as fears of a funding crunch were eased and short EUR positions were squeezed.

In consequence, both European and US equity indices managed to close the day firmly in positive territory, and that has encouraged a constructive day for the major Asian bourses today. The Nikkei is +2.3% on the day, with the Hang Seng +1.8% and Shanghai Composite +0.2%.

The optimism gleaned from the liquidity announcements managed to gloss over an otherwise mediocre day on the economic data front. US data was worse than expected on the whole, except for a lone bright spot in industrial production data which managed a 0.2% print in August compared to estimates looking for 0.0%. In contrast to this pleasant surprise, the Empire manufacturing survey was much worse than expected at -8.82 (consensus: -4.00), the Philly Fed survey was another dreadful reading at -17.5 (estimate -15.0), both initial and continuing jobless claims rose on the week prior, and capacity utilization fell to 77.4% from 77.5% last month. In addition, headline CPI for August came out slightly higher than expected at 0.4% MoM, 3.8% YoY (compared to estimates looking for 0.2% MoM, 0.6% YoY) – a factor that is likely to make the Fed's job even harder as growth slows.

After yesterday's hectic schedule the calendar eases today, with only a few releases planned; first up will be Eurozone current account and trade balance data, rounded off this afternoon by US net long-term TIC flows and University of Michigan consumer confidence.

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