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Friday, 16 September 2011 08:36

Morning Forex Overview

Fundamental market overview


'The ECB is seeing the stress in the dollar markets right now,' said Benjamin Schroeder, a rate strategist at Commerzbank AG. 'If there was really a big problem you'd see more demand in the seven-day tender. The ECB is trying to prevent things from getting out of hand.'


The number of Americans, claiming for unemployment benefits, jumped to 428 thousand last week, up from 417 thousand the week before, the U.S. Census Bureau said on Thursday. The data is worse than forecasted figure of 410 thousand.


'It doesn't surprise me that retail sales are in negative territory as household incomes aren't rising strongly enough,' said Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotia Capital Europe Ltd. 'It's not going to be easy going.'


Swiss stocks edged higher for third consecutive day on Thursday as gains by Credit Suisse Group AG and Holcim Ltd. outweighed a sharp fall in UBS AG after the bank announced $2 billion loss in unauthorized trades. The Swiss blue-chip index SMI, a measure of the largest and most actively traded companies, advanced 0.29% to 5,433.48. The broader Swiss Performance Index rose 0.46% to 4,957.27.


Japanese stocks advanced on Wednesday, after Merkel and Sarkozy said they are confident Greece will remain in the Eurozone and rumours grew that China may buy indebted nations' bonds. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.76% to 8,668.86, while the broader Topix increased 1.36% to 751.76.

Market expectations


The euro-American dollar currency couple has prolonged its rally, which is currently targeting a major resistance zone located at 1.4022/35, being 200 day and200 week ma. Nevertheless, the long term outlook remains negative.


The pair is headed towards resistance area at 107.50/108.00, near which contraction is expected to occur. The decline might push the price down to the level of 100 within the next 3 months.


Even though the support at 1.5783/86 has managed to send the GBP/USD back up, resistances, located at 1.5922 and 1.6045, are likely to trigger further sell off, which may continue till the price reaches 1.5480 or even 1.5343.


On Friday, USD/JPY is expected to act calmly, while trading within a corridor, created by the initial resistance and support lines, located at 77.90 and 76.29 respectively. The bias for the long term is bullish.


The bullish momentum was unable to pierce through the resistance at 0.8850/0.8950, being 200 day ma, implying the possibility of a slide down to 0.8640/62. Rallies will be capped by 0.8920/47 and 0.9000.

Most important events of the day


Regardless of ECB and EU leaders' efforts, investors still consider the fiscal boost being measly. Trichet demands faster decision making from EU officials.

Trichet to Euro Officials: Get �Ahead of Curve'

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet pressed Euro area governments to take decisive action to halt the debt crisis, after the ECB bought them more time by extending an emergency lifeline to lenders.


Obama's �American jobs act' has been rejected by Republicans, signalling that it will not be accepted by Congress in short term.

Stimulus Fatigue Stymies Obama in Rounding Up Votes for Full Jobs Package

Republican lawmakers are rejecting President Barack Obama's $447 billion job-creation plan in its entirety and expressing skepticism about its pieces, creating doubt about whether it can overcome obstacles in Congress.

Asia & Pacific

Although Chinese FDI has declined last month, the economic growth outlook is still strong. Asian stocks surged yesterday on central banks' additional liquidity measures.

China Jan-Aug FDI Growth Slows, Outlook Positive

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China slowed slightly in the first eight months of 2011 from a year ago although economists said the outlook is still positive given the higher growth rate in the world's second biggest economy.

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