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Friday, 18 November 2011 09:42

Markets Gyrating Around Eurozone Officials' Comments And Rhetoric

'Where they promised greater economic stability, the euro has exacerbated uncertainty and volatility. Where the single currency was supposed to promote trade and integration, it has instead created new divisions. Where it was portrayed as a vehicle to enhance Europe's influence in the world, it has reduced the EU to an international laughing stock, or worse. Where it was promoted as a forge for closer political co-operation in Europe, as part of the formula to end the wars and bloodshed of the 20th century, it has fuelled conflict, undermined democratic structures and reawakened age-old national resentments.'

Whilst you would be forgiven for thinking that this is the angry ranting of a hardened Europhobe, these are actually the words of Andrew Gowers, former editor of the FT who was a leading advocate of the UK joining the single currency at its outset. His echoes of Robert Burns' infamous 'best laid schemes' have seemingly left us 'nought but grief an' pain for promis'd joy'. Where does that leave us now?

Just as the hot political potato of too big to fail banks was a core debate at the height of the credit crunch, we are effectively at that point in the Eurozone, where Italy and Spain are too big for a bailout (let alone both) - at least not without a 'nuclear' approach from the European Central Bank which would undoubtedly drag France and even Germany into the realm of sub AAA. Whilst it is difficult to envisage a 'scheme' from Eurozone officials to remove the pressure on sovereign yields and the euro concept, other than via monetisation from the ECB, there is no sign of a shift from Germany and the deadlock continues to set the 'risk' off tone for all financial markets.

Today is very light on the data front and markets will continue to gyrate around the comments and rhetoric of Eurozone officials with the second confidence vote for Mario Monti a focal point (although unlikely to be anything but a clear yes). Social unrest across Europe looks set to continue as the years of unsustainable spending have given rise to a lifestyle that is … well unsustainable. The Troika has called for sharp and sustained public and private sector wage cuts in order to try and regain some competetiveness, but the short-term impact of this is likely to make growth weaker and the situation (at least from the inside) feel worse.

Equities continued to fall overnight as concerns over global growth continue to ruminate. AUD was hit overnight and I would continue to expect to see AUD weakness from this point despite the downside progress having been much slower than I would have anticipated over the last weeks.

In the broader markets activity is becoming very light. Real money, particularly investment, flows have dried up recently as the uncertainty continues to rise. Speculative investors or the hedge fund community are in a similar position where poor returns have generally inspired lower volumes as money managers write off 2011 as a disappointing year. I still see GBP outperforming the EUR into year end, despite the focus of some on the historic positive seasonality of risk and risk correlated assets such as the EUR in December, however, progress from here may be a little slower unless further developments are forthcoming.
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