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Friday, 16 September 2011 14:02

Markets Cautious Heading into Weekend

USD is trading mixed, firming against the EUR, CHF, and Scandies while weaker against the NZD and AUD. It is relatively unchanged against the JPY, CAD, and GBP. July TIC data is set for release at 0900ET and the results of the September preliminary University of Michigan Confidence survey are due at 0955ET which is expected to rise to 57.0 from the prior 55.7.

EUR softer against all of the G10 with the exception of the CHF even as EU peripheral yields spreads and sovereign 5-year CDS narrowed. European Finance Ministers have gathered in Poland for the start of this weekend's EcoFin meeting to discuss the EFSF, Greece aid, and a collateral deal. The market remains skeptical on a tangible outcome which has put pressure on the common currency today. EUR/USD was rejected from the 38.2% Fib retracement of the decline from the highs above 1.45 to the near 1.35 lows and the pair is currently trading around the 1.38 figure. The market is keeping a close eye on Italy's Aa2 credit rating as Moody's placed Italy on watch negative three months ago today.

GBP trading relatively flat .BoE Deputy Governor Bean said U.K. economic growth will pick up next year as inflation slows. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said a successful euro is in Britain's interest. EUR/GBP was rejected from the 55-day SMA around 0.8785.

CHF mostly weaker as sentiment stabilizes ahead of the weekend. EUR/CHF maintains above the 1.20 floor set by the SNB as the bank yesterday reiterated its commitment to enforce the minimum rate saying 'it is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities'.

JPY range bound with USD/JPY trading below the 21-day SMA and near record lows. Short term yields continue to be a main driving factor which may see USD/JPY higher on anticipation of the Fed Twist. Japanese intervention remains a risk, however we do not anticipate this ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.

CAD is weaker against the buck as crude oil is down about -0.45% currently. Canadian international securities transactions for July are due at 0830ET and expected at +2.00B from the prior -3.46B.

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