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Wednesday, 05 October 2011 05:59

Market Drivers - Currencies

Today's Comment

  • EUR/USD (from Neutral to BUY): We recommend BUY T/P at 138. S/L at 131.49.
  • EUR/PLN (SELL): We recommend SELL; T/P at 432; S/L at 447.10.
  • EUR/GBP (BUY): We recommend BUY; T/P at 87.75. Move S/L to 85.20.
  • USD/JPY (BUY): We recommend BUY; T/P at 79.50 and S/L at 75.75.
  • EUR/SEK (BUY): We recommend BUY; T/P at 935. Move S/L to entry (911.36).

Yesterday was generally a fairly quiet day in respect of news, and the markets primarily noted the statements on the part of Trichet as these were less dovish than expected. On the other side of the Atlantic, Bernanke stated to Congress that the Fed is willing to take further steps if necessary. Moreover there are rumours that Europe will recapitalise European banks. The above development contributed to a generally positive sentiment. The positive sentiment ground, however, to a sudden halt when unexpectedly Moody's downgraded Italy's credit rating by no less than three notches from Aa2 to A2 – as well as 'negative outlook'.

Today focus will be on PMI data from the service sector. We will see data from the US, the UK and Europe. Also ADP employment will as usual attract attention being an indicator of Friday's very important NFP employment figures. Tonight Bank of Japan will have its interest-rate meeting. EUR/JPY has increased a tad but is still at a very low level. It is not unlikely that Bank of Japan will intervene.

We assess that a correction is imminent, which is reflected in our recommendations. The timing of a correction is always difficult to predict.

EUR/USD (from Neutral to BUY): As announced yesterday, a breach above 132.55 would prompt us to adjust to BUY. The movement was seen late in the afternoon yesterday, and we adjusted to BUY. Currently we are seeing a large divergence in a number of cross rates and in the equity and commodity market. This supports the assumption that we may be in for a strong correction. We recommend a short-term stop as the sentiment may change quickly. S/P in our investment case was reached at 132.55. We close the case with a profit of 8.33%.

EUR/GBP (BUY): The cross rate tends to 'trend' and see relatively large movement in a few days. We think it is likely that 88.80 will be tested again, but so far we have set T/P at 87.75. A number of important economic indicators will be released in the UK today. PMI service data and the 2nd revision of GDP. Moreover, Bank of England's interest-rate meeting will begin – it will be concluded with an announcement tomorrow. If the most recent flow of slightly better-than-expected figures continues, the likelihood of a new round of quantitative easing (QE2) will be reduced already tomorrow

Chart: Speculative investor positioning (EURUSD)

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