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Friday, 18 November 2011 09:39

Mario Monti Faces A Tough Challenge Fixing Italy's Problems

Market Brief

Incumbent Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti may have cleared his first hurdle by winning yesterday's confidence vote in the senate, but the political outlook in Italy continues to hinder the recovery of Eurozone sentiment, ensuring that EURUSD remains under pressure and equities struggle. There was perhaps a misguided sense of optimism when Berlusconi vacated the position of Prime Minister, as his ability to hamper confidence is still apparent; demonstrated by his pledge yesterday that his party would vote 'no' on a proposed wealth tax, thereby throwing a spanner in the works for Monti and his technocrats. Adding further salt to the wounds, ratings agency Fitch subsequently warned that news flow out of Italy is likely to remain largely negative.

Against this backdrop of constant European woe, the Asian equity markets have had another gloomy day, with all the major bourses in negative territory. The Nikkei is -1.2%, Hang Seng -2%, and Shanghai Composite -1.9% on the day, while futures markets are already pointing to a lower open from the European indices this morning.

Nevertheless, there were a few pieces of good news from the past 24 hours. Continuing the recent trend of encouraging US data, initial jobless claims figures came out slightly better than expected yesterday at 388k (consensus: 395k, prior: 390k), and continuing claims also fell to 3608k (consensus: 3635k, prior: 3615k). Meanwhile housing market data in October also exceeded analyst forecasts; housing starts hit 628k compared to expectations for 610k, and building permits came out at 653k versus expectations for 603k.

Today there is a very light data calendar, with the only releases of any significance likely to be Canadian CPI, plus both the Canadian and US leading indicators. Therefore, we expect headline risk and choppy trading conditions to persist into the weekend as fragile sentiment dominates the price action.

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