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Wednesday, 16 November 2011 18:28

EUR Under Pressure as Bond Yields Continue to Rise

Safe havens continue to advance as euro zone bond yields climb higher and fears of contagion mount. The USD and JPY were firmer across the board on risk aversion flows, EUR was under pressure amid record high yield spreads and despite a dovish outlook from the BoE, the GBP was mostly firmer against the G10 except against the buck and the yen.

In Europe, EC Commission President Barroso said the region is facing a "truly systemic crisis". Financial stresses elevated with the French 10-year yield spread to German bunds reaching new record highs. Spain's 10-year yield spread over Germany hit a record high of 459bps while Austria and Belgium spreads trade near record levels. Italy's Mario Monti told the President that he accepted the position of Prime Minister and also announced that he will be the Finance Minister in the new Italian government. Monti stated that the lack of politicians in his cabinet will facilitate work. Elsewhere in Italy, there were reports that the largest Italian bank will ask the ECB to broaden the type of assets banks can use as collateral. Italy's 10-year bond yields remained at heightened levels above 7%.

The Bank of England released its quarterly Inflation Report which was dovish with downgrades to both its growth and inflation outlooks suggesting that more QE may be on the horizon. The bank noted that inflation may drop below the 2% target in two years and that the euro zone crisis is the biggest threat to the U.K. economy. BoE Governor King said that the bank sees ‘weakness' over the next few quarters. Labor data was also released out of the U.K. which showed unemployment increasing to 8.3% from the prior 8.1% (cons. 8.2%) in the Sept. ILO unemployment report. The Oct. jobless claims change came in better than expected at 5.3K (cons. 51.0K prior 13.4K) and the claimant count rate for Oct. was 5.0% (cons. 5.1%). GBP/USD dipped below the 1.58 figure to lows of around 1.5745.

The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged as expected with the target rate on hold at 0.10%. Governor Shirakawa said that the recovery is moderating due to overseas slowdown and that the economy will face adverse effects of a global slump and level of the yen. Finance Minister Azumi was also on the wires overnight and maintained his position on the yen saying that he expects the BoJ to take appropriate measures on the strong currency. The JPY continued to firm on demand for safety, however traders remain alert for official action.

On the data front for the upcoming NY session we have U.S. CPI figures for Oct. due out at 0830ET. September TIC flow data is scheduled for release at 0900ET and October industrial production and capacity utilization are next at 0915ET. Fed speakers today include Lacker and Rosengren.

USD, JPY advance as investors seek safety

USD firmer against all of its major counterparts except for the JPY as sentiment continues to be weighed down by concerns over the European crisis. US stock markets are currently down about -0.90% and UST yields are lower as markets demand safety. Economic data showed a m/m decline in headline inflation of -0.1% in Oct. while the core reading rose by +0.1% m/m. Yearly CPI figures for Oct. came in at 3.5% on the headline (prior 3.9%) and 2.1% excluding food and energy. Oct. industrial production was stronger than anticipated with a print of +0.7% (cons. +0.4% prior -0.1%). The Dollar Index is above the top of the daily cloud suggesting further technical strength.

EUR under pressure as financial stresses elevated with the French 10-year yield spread to German bunds reaching new record highs. Spain's 10-year yield spread over Germany hit a record high of 459bps while Austria and Belgium spreads trade near record levels. Italy's Mario Monti told the President that he accepted the position of Prime Minister and also announced that he will be the Finance Minister in the new Italian government. EUR/USD is below the key 1.35 big figure which may now become near term resistance.

JPY climbing higher on haven flows and following the BoJ meeting. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged as expected with the target rate on hold at 0.10%. Governor Shirakawa said that the recovery is moderating due to overseas slowdown and that the economy will face adverse effects of a global slump and level of the yen. Finance Minister Azumi was also on the wires overnight and maintained his position on the yen saying that he expects the BoJ to take appropriate measures on the strong currency. JPY-crosses are lower on demand for safety, however traders remain alert for official action. In USD/JPY, the base of the cloud and 55-day SMA which converge around the 76.90/95 level appear to be holding as support for now.

GBP softer after the Bank of England released its quarterly Inflation Report which was dovish with downgrades to both its growth and inflation outlooks suggesting that more QE may be on the horizon. The bank noted that inflation may drop below the 2% target in two years and that the euro zone crisis is the biggest threat to the U.K. economy. BoE Governor King said that the bank sees ‘weakness' over the next few quarters. Labor data was also released out of the U.K. which showed unemployment increasing to 8.3% from the prior 8.1% (cons. 8.2%) in the Sept. ILO unemployment report. The Oct. jobless claims change came in better than expected at 5.3K (cons. 51.0K prior 13.4K) and the claimant count rate for Oct. was 5.0% (cons. 5.1%). GBP/USD is currently within its daily clouds and below the 1.58 figure.

CAD weaker amid risk aversion. WTI crude is trading above $100 a barrel and currently up +1.40% however this is not enough to support the Loonie as it is mostly softer against the G10. There is no economic data due out of Canada today.

AUD declining amid risk-off sentiment and after the Sept. Westpac leading index fell to -0.3% from the prior +0.7%. AUD/USD was rejected from the top of the daily ichimoku cloud which currently comes in around the 1.02 figure and sees near term support around the 1.0050 level.

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