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Monday, 27 February 2012 13:43

EUR Downside Still Limited By Short Positioning

  • G20 calls for boost to euro area firewall before IMF review in April
  • Net EUR short positions on the IMM reduced modestly in the week to Feb

USD

USD weakness continued to extend on Friday, with long positioning against Europe being unwound and this only being partially offset by strength against the yen. Major support for the USD index comes in around 1% below here in the 77.00-77.40 area, and this looks likely to be tested before we see a turn in recent weakness. There is nothing on the calendar today to change things, and the better Michigan sentiment and home sales data on Friday continue to support risk sentiment rather than the USD.

EUR

The EUR and other European currencies made general gains on Friday as optimism related to the Greek bailout and the upcoming 3 year LTRO continued to have its effects, and the market's long term short positioning in EUR/USD continued to be squared. It seems very clear that much of this move is positioning related as the EUR gained most against the USD, CAD, AUD, NZD and JPY where IMM positioning was long, and actually fell against the CHF, suggesting this is not a general risk positive move. Today's vote in the German Lower House should be fairly routine, and the market anticipation of the LTRO suggests the EUR upside will still be favoured, especially since the IMM data released on Friday still showed substantial short positioning, although this has certainly been significantly reduced since the data was collected on Tuesday.

GBP

Friday's GDP data can be interpreted as slightly positive for sterling, as the stronger than expected consumption and export components may lead to stronger investment going forward, even though investment was weak in Q4. UK data has consistently surprised on the upside so far this year, and although there is no great fundamental case for GBP/USD to move back through the 200-day moving average (currently at 1.5907) which its has held below since September, a combination of general risk positive sentiment, better UK numbers and squaring of short risk positions suggest sterling should do well against the more expensive and risk negative currencies.

AUD

The comments from RBA governor Stevens last week led the market to rein in expectations of Australian rate cuts, and 2 year yields are up 37bps in the last month, substantially more than elsewhere. However, the AUD has vastly outperformed yield spreads in the last couple of years as risk premiums have been priced into Europe. If these are priced out, there is substantial potential for the AUD to weaken on the crosses, even in a generally risk positive environment.

Spotlight - JPY now close to fair levels given fundamental concerns - On an objective basis, the metrics used in the chart below suggests that the JPY is now relatively cheap against most G10 currency pairs, with only the USD, EUR and SEK actually at cheaper levels. However, fundamental concerns relating to weak Japanese growth and high debt, as well as the BoJ pledge to target 1% inflation and the new round of QE all suggest this yen weakness is reasonable. Even so, it has moved out of the overvalued camp in recent weeks, and at these levels is certainly no longer the favoured funding currency. That honour should fall squarely on the Swiss franc

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