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Wednesday, 07 September 2011 05:50

Asian Market Update

(EU) ECB drained €129.0B vs. €129.0B targeted in 7-Day Term Deposits

(IR) Ireland Aug Consumer Confidence: 55.8 v 55.9 prior

(BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-DI: 0.6% v 0.5%e

(BR) Brazil Aug IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 7.2% v 7.2%e

(US) Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 53.3 v 51.0e

(BR) Brazil July CNI Capacity Utilization: 82.1% v 82.0%e

US equity markets are tanking after Europe's very bad day yesterday and continued weakness in global markets this morning. Greece is right back in focus this morning given the shaky political position of German Chancellor Merkel, who warned that a possible Greek exit from the euro zone could trigger a "domino effect," as the DAX hit fresh 25-month lows below 5,170. Meanwhile US bank stocks are down sharply once again.

The slightly less bad August ISM non-manufacturing data has not done much to distract traders from the horrible sentiment. Spot gold is hovering around $1,900, only about $20 bucks from the fresh all-time highs seen earlier.

Treasury and Bund yields continue to touch historically low levels. The US 10-year is below 1.95% while the German is sub 1.85%.

Leading US banks names opened deep in the red, with shares of both Bank of America and Citi down 6% or so right at the open. Yesterday evening there were reports that the banks had been offered a deal on questionable mortgage foreclosure practices from the states. BoA and Citi are regaining lost ground after the less-bad ISM data. Another key semi name cut its Q3 outlook this morning: Fairchild trimmed its Q3 revenue forecast for the quarter, warning that end sales have weakened even as demand from OEM customers has remained stable. Note that both Altera and Texas Instruments are scheduled for Q3 updates this week. Shares of FCS dipped as much as 7% right after the open, but have returned to unchanged by mid morning. Shaw is exercising an option to sell off its 20% stake in the Westinghouse nuclear power joint venture to partner Toshiba. Sunoco said that it was getting out of the refining business and would sell off its refineries in Pennsylvania; expects to record $1.9-2.2B in charges in Q3. The company will focus on its logistics and retail businesses. SUN is up a few percent on the news. International Paper boosted its standing offer for Temple-Inland to $32 from $30.60 prior, for a total deal worth $4.3B.

The New York dealing desks have been debating the implications of the SNB's floor under the EUR/CHF pair this morning. Now that the SNB has committed itself to an endurance contest, many dealers wonder how long the bank will be able to keep up its resolve to defend EUR/CHF 1.20. However, some Asian analysts commented that maintaining a peg was not that difficult provided the central bank has enough ammunition to carry out daily maintenance. Historical precedents were cited: Bretton Woods maintained a peg for three decades. The Swiss Watch Federation said the floor would aid the industry, although it mentioned that it would have preferred the level around 1.30-1.40. The current belief among dealers is that if the SNB wants to preserve its currency reserves, it would sell EUR/USD and not buy USD/CHF. One analyst placed the Swiss central bank reserve ratio at 55% euros, 25% dollars and around 10% yen.

Looking Ahead

(GE) Planned meeting between G erman, Dutch, Finnish finance ministers on Greek collateral issue

11:00 (UK) UK PM Cameron appears before Parliament's Liaison Committee

11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.5-1.0B in Notes/Bonds

11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in3-Month and $27B in 6-month Bills

13:10 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks at University of Minnesota

13:30 (UK) Former Fed's Kohn speaks at London School of Economics

17:00 (CO) Colombia July Exports FOB: No est v $4.7B prior

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