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Monday, 20 February 2012 08:14

All Eyes On Eurogroup Meeting


  • IMM EUR net shorts marginally rose in the week to 14 Feb, after two consecutive weeks of declines
  • China cut bank reserve ratio by 50bp to 20.50%
  • UK Rightmove House Prices rise 4.1% m/m in February


The USD was broadly unchanged on Friday. News over the weekend that China cut its reserve ratio by 50bp, to 20.50% will likely keep risk well supported this morning ahead of the Eurogroup meeting. With little on the calendar and a US holiday today markets will likely remain on the sidelines until we hear some news from the Eurogroup meeting. Should a positive outcome see EUR/USD rally to the highs seen earlier this month, the USD index could dip below the 78.50 level.


EUR/USD remained supported on Friday on market optimism towards a Greek deal. Over the weekend the Greek cabinet approved the EUR325mn extra spending cuts, now meeting all three demands required bringing them a step closer to an approval for the Greek bailout package. This and China cutting its RRR by 50bp will see EUR/USD well supported ahead of this afternoon's Eurogroup meeting. While the market has been more positive towards Greece over the past few sessions, the market doesn't look to be pricing in a greater probability of a positive outcome and risks remain given the terms of the bailout are yet to be agreed. An announcement of a Greek deal could see EUR rally and threaten the 1.3322 high seen earlier this month and the approval should prompt the activation of the PSI and EUR could push higher.


UK Retail Sales surprised largely on the upside on Friday, up 0.9% m/m in January compared to market expectations of -0.3%; this boosted GBP/USD higher. EUR/GBP has remained within a range since the start of the year; with key resistance around the 0.8420 area. There is risk to the upside on a significant EUR rally but we expect GBP/USD will move with EUR/USD and risk sentiment.


NOK outperformed in G10 on Friday. NOK will likely remain resilient after the Norges Bank governor Olsen indicated effort to restrict NOK strength were limited. NOK TWI is up 3% this last year, but it is still below the highs seen in September last year. Our valuation model which takes into account of the current account positions, yield attraction as well as the standard PPP approach suggests NOK is currently at fair value.

Spotlight - Weak underlying flows into EZ - The Eurozone basic balance continued to weaken in December. Friday's data showed foreign investor buying of EZ bonds picked up, but continued selling of EZ money market instruments meant demand for EZ assets remained weak. There had also been consistent repatriation flows since May 2011, which had arguably provided some support for the EUR, but in December EZ investors net bought foreign assets. With on-going concerns surrounding the European debt crisis sentiment towards Europe has been subdued since the start of the year and we expect weak demand for EZ assets to persist in the next few data releases.

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